At least Europe won’t get blamed.
That’s about the only definitive thing one can say about a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that may, or may not, be on the verge of collapse as of this writing.
Brussels isn’t that bothered either way. Not because they don’t care, but because they know that neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians are particularly bothered by what they think.
Europe’s internal divisions over the conflict have resulted in a near-total loss of influence, as evidenced by the fact that none of the seasoned diplomats racing to craft the ceasefire is European.
Europe’s lack of a coherent policy isn’t the only reason for its powerlessness, though.
Another, arguably more important factor, is that European assistance to the Palestinians is unconditional. That robs the bloc of any real financial leverage and explains why both sides are happy to ignore anything it says.
Europe’s only real function in the conflict is to act as a giant trust fund with no strings attached.
Consider UNWRA, the controversial UN agency that has served as the Palestinians’ de-facto administration for decades. Of UNWRA’s top 10 funders, seven are European.
While the countries in the region have a big say at the negotiating table, most of them are not nearly as eager to spend money on the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia, for example, ranks 17th, right behind Ireland, a country with an economy half the size of the Gulf kingdom’s.
Up until 7 October 2023, Israel was grateful for Europe’s open chequebook. And while the EU’s support for UNWRA may no longer be welcomed there, Israel is likely to be more than happy to let Europe take a leading role in funding the reconstruction of Gaza.
Asked Thursday what role the EU had played in the ceasefire negotiations, an EU spokesperson acknowledged that Europe “was not directly involved,” but did provide “constant diplomatic support to the mediators,” for which all sides were no doubt very grateful.
The good news for the warring parties is that come ceasefire, Europe’s chequebook will once again be wide open.
Roundup
Tech – Open-source software has been put forward as the potential remedy to the European Commission’s dependency on Microsoft, but with the EU executive sceptical of there being any credible alternative, Euractiv decided to take a closer look.
Energy –The World Economic Forum (WEF) is compensating political, business, academic, and celebrity elites who travel to next week’s Davos summit by low-emission rail, but delegates seem happier to stick with their private jets to go to Switzerland.
Economy – Billionaire Elon Musk’s staunch opposition to unions and his growing influence among European business leaders pose a serious threat to EU workers and the bloc’s wider economy, the head of Europe’s largest trade union organisation warned.
EU Parliament – The Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs (LIBE) on Thursday endorsed Bruno Gencarelli for a five-year term as the Union’s privacy watchdog.
Across Europe
Italy – Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration boasts a thin European guest list, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni the only head of state personally invited.
Bulgaria – After four years of failing to form a viable government and repeated snap elections, Bulgaria is on the verge of having a cabinet, although last-minute surprises are always on the horizon.
Hungary – The European Commission endorsed Hungary’s plan to comply with the Union’s budget rules on Thursday, marking a slight easing of tensions in Budapest and Brussels’ fractious relationship – at least for now.
Denmark – US President-elect Donald Trump did not withdraw his previous threat of targeted tariffs on Danish goods in a phone call with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, as his desire for control of Greenland shows no sign of abating.
